Brexit is approaching, but still London and Brussels must agree the commercial relationship before a political climate that looks for a second referendum
Brexit is in a race against the clock. What we know as the United Kingdom's exit from the European Union, received its first green flag in mid-2016 with the second referendum.
Leer en español: Brexit: ¿Estarán arrepentidos quienes votaron a favor?
The exit of the European Union obtained a 52% of votes in favor, with a majority of votes concentrated in England and Wales. A narrow difference has made the political debate a challenge for London before the possibility of leaving the EU.
In March 2017, the United Kingdom confirmed its intention to leave the European Union and began the exit process that would last for two years. The date is about to arrive on March 29, 2019. In less than 200 days, the United Kingdom would become the first country to leave the political and economic union of the European continent.
52% is a number that does not represent a super majority. Therefore, the policy of the region has focused on what United Kingdom will be post-Brexit divided between the Conservative Party (in favor of the exit) and the Labor Party (against the exit). The themes that revolve around Brexit are related to the reduction of foreign investment, a possible economic crisis, and migration measures.
A new referendum?
A study by Focaldata for the pro-EU organization, Best for Britain, found that 2.6 million people regret their vote in favor of Brexit.
Is there a possibility of a new referendum? The British Prime Minister, Theresa May, discards it completely because it would be "a betrayal of democracy", she told the Sunday Telegraph.
The movement in favor of a new consultation is led by the labor unions. GMB (Britain's General Union) is a union in the United Kingdom with more than 631,000 members that proposes a referendum on the final agreement of the Brexit. Tim Roache, its secretary general, declared that the decision to leave the European Union is just as important as the way it will be abandoned, reports El Comercio.
The final agreement of the Brexit is what most uncertainty and work has generated around the policy and the commercial relationship. Two EU summits remain before the end of the year and the member countries, as well as the European community, are waiting to see the final agreement for the UK exit.
Beyond the lack of a precise social consensus, the British Parliament will have to vote in early 2019 in the House of Commons the agreement with the EU and the votes are not sure.
Leaving the EU without agreement
London and Brussels must agree on the commercial relationship and the independence of the borders with a possibility of a "no deal". A report by the consulting firm Oliver Wyman estimates the cost of a "no deal" at 35 million euros for exporters in the European Union.
"Leaving the EU without a negotiated agreement will not be the end of the world, but neither will it be a walk in the park" commented Theresa May in The Daily Telegraph, assuring that the scenario is possible.
The Brexit in Latin America
While the questions about whether there will be an agreement or not and the price that the United Kingdom will pay in return continue to increase, in Latin America the consequences of Brexit will not be felt so strongly.
The main scenarios were the instability of financial markets and the decrease in foreign investment that would affect mostly countries with emerging economies and high debts.
What the region will have to do is to rethink the agreements with the EU. The United Kingdom would be excluded from those treaties that it shares with Mexico, Peru, Colombia, and Chile, being isolated from Latin American countries.
LatinAmerican Post | Diana Ramos
Translated from “Brexit: ¿Estarán arrepentidos quienes votaron a favor?”